Championship
Top edges right now
Paddock wire
Driver Elo
Elo model comparison teammate head-to-head, out-of-sample
Strength model internals
Walk-forward backtest
Model competition - 2026 holdout
Promotion history the loop's own decisions - promotions and holds
Finishing position odds
How to read this
Each row is a driver, and each column is a finishing position - P1 (the win) on the left, running through to DNF on the right. Each cell shows the model's estimated chance of that exact finish, from thousands of simulated runs of the race; darker cells are more likely.
DNF is the chance a driver does not finish at all - retirement, crash, or mechanical failure. Expected position, next to each driver's name, is their average finishing position across every simulation - one number summarizing the whole row. Hover any cell or column header for exact figures. For finished rounds, the outlined cell in each row marks where the driver actually finished, and the panels below settle every recorded bet against the real result.
Team builder entertainment only
How this works
One click spins the first two reels: an engine era, then a team from that era's own real starters. Pick your driver from everyone who actually started for that team in that era, then spin once more for a co-driver drawn from all of F1 history. Every driver and team runs at its own career-peak rating, so you always get the prime version, and an unrated peak is disclosed rather than hidden behind a bare number.
The engine era sets two things: an engine multiplier from how that era's constructors actually ranked in wins, podiums, and points, and an era-authentic retirement rate. An old era retires like an old era - that is the joke, and it is also the honest part, since nothing here invents a reliability the picked era did not earn.
Run the assembled team against one of three fields: the ten greatest constructor seasons of all time, the real 2023 grid Red Bull dominated, or today's actual live grid. Every entrant runs the full calendar, deterministically, so running the same team through the same competition again reproduces the exact same result.
Just for fun - simulated results, not predictions.